In view of the need to generate forecasts as check data for estimates, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) has been into the development of forecasting tools or early warning system (EWS) activity especially for broiler and pork. Thus, BAS has developed a “Life Cycle Forecasting Model” as early as 1996 to forecast broiler production and regression analyses to forecast hogs slaughtered or pork production. However, BAS has been motivated to refine its “life-cycle forecasting model” due to several pressing issues like the “boom and bust” of the broiler supply, as well as the recent adoption of hybrid Grant Parent Stock (GPS) and Parent Stock (PS) by broiler integrators. The present EWS project for broiler and swine was geared towards the development of an appropriate methodology for efficient early warning system for broiler meat and pork. Series of training workshops and consultation meetings, as well as inventory of data needed for the study was conducted in order to develop an appropriate methodology for efficient early warning system for broiler meat and pork. The initial activities done under the Phase 1 of the project were focused more on its core components, which were the development and enhancement of forecasting tools and the initial organization of databases. However, the project envisioned a more holistic approach on EWS. To ensure the success of this early warning system project, it is imperative that the government and the private agribusiness stakeholders make collaborative efforts. Therefore, the project advocates the continuing efforts on EWS especially the activities planned for the BSI-EWS Phase 2, as well as the institutionalization of its envisioned approaches especially on providing the industry with short-term outlook under the collaborative framework between and among government and private agribusiness sectors.

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