The BSI-EWS is a collaborative project of the government with the Livestock Development Council (LDC) as the proponent, the private agribusiness, the academe and research institutions. The lead implementers of the project are the Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC), the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) and the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI). Other collaborating DA agencies are the DA-Agricultural Marketing and Agribusiness Service (DA-AMAS) and the National Meat Inspection Service (NMIS). In general, the project aims to improve data collection methodology and develop database system for broiler and swine. The BAS has been into the development of forecasting tools or EWS activity especially for broiler and pork because of the need to generate forecasts as check data for estimates. The present EWS project for broiler and swine was geared towards the development of an appropriate methodology for efficient early warning system for broiler meat and pork. In developing the enhanced model for BSI-EWS, the project team reviewed and revisited the previously developed models in 2001 to come up with the best model. Three (3) general approaches/methods were considered: (a) regression analysis (b) exponential smoothing (c) deterministic or life-cycle model. For hog production, three (3) regression models were developed. To estimate the quarterly demand for pork, result of Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) for pork, Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) spent on food, and prices were used. For broiler meat supply and demand, two (2) models were tested. The initial activities done under Phase 1 of the project were focused more on its core components, which were the development and enhancement of forecasting tools and initial organization of databases. The project advocates for the continuing efforts on EWS especially the activities defined in BSI-EWS Phase 2 and the institutionalization of its envisioned approaches especially on providing the industry with short-term outlook under the collaborative framework between and among government and private agribusiness sectors.

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