Livestock and Poultry Information and Early Warning System Year 3
From 2007 to 2009, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) of the Department of Agriculture (DA) and the Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC) have jointly conducted three phases of the “Broiler and Swine Information and Early Warning System project, later renamed as Livestock and Poultry Information and Early Warning System (LPI-EWS). On its third year, the LPI-EWS 3 was implemented to further enhance the appropriate methodologies developed in previous years and to expand EWS concepts to regional teams. Specifically, the following were executed in this project: a) development of a more appropriate supply and demand forecasting models for broiler meat and pork, b) continued production of “Broiler Situation and Outlook” and “Swine Situation and Outlook” reports on a quarterly basis, c) conduct of trainings on “Alternative Modelling Techniques”, d) updating of livestock and poultry information, databases, and data system, e) strengthening of linkages with the private agribusiness stakeholders through exchange of information, and f) expansion of project concepts to the Batch 3 regions, I and XII. Nearly the same operational framework was adopted, the deviation being the separation of forecasting from data organization which resulted to four project components. Parameters of broiler life cycle model were updated and econometric models were revisited and enhanced. Suggestion to compare and validate the existing Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARMAX) with Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models and consider the results of the Agribusiness Expectation Survey (ABES) were likewise proposed.