Final Research Output on Broiler and Swine Information and Early Warning System
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Abstract:
In the third year of implementation of the LPI-EWS, several issues and concerns were observed which paved for the need to enhance the existing models. Existing forecasting models for broiler and swine were revisited and forecasting models were analyzed. The proposed models were suited to address the observed issues and concerns but further enhancements were recommended for a more realistic representation. Recommendations for further enhancements were identified. For the production model, it is recommended to incorporate actual data for hog diseases or litter size in the production model instead of using a proxy variable. For the supply model, it is recommended to add frozen inventory as another variable and incorporate data for prices of inputs. For the demand model, use of a more specific data for food production and consideration of prices of substitute goods as additional regressors are suggested.
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