A Time Series Analysis of Intertemporal Price Transmission in the Philippine Rice Market
Author: Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC)
This study examined the intertemporal rice price transmissions in the Philippines and in selected rice producing provinces in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. The analysis used monthly domestic farm, wholesale and retail price data, as well as world rice prices. The analysis of intertemporal price transmission showed that it was affected by seasonal factors. Seasonality was found in farm and wholesale prices but was more stable at farmgate due to fluctuations in supply from the regular lean and peak season of harvests. At the national level and in surplus and deficit provinces, price shocks were immediately transmitted at all price levels, suggesting strong correlation of farm, wholesale and retail prices.