Implementation of the Research Project “Egg Forecasting Model Development and Supply Chain Analysis of Hog and Broiler” (EFMD-SCA)
Author: (no author specified in the paper)
The importance and usefulness of various information generated by the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) has long been recognized by the Department of Agriculture (DA) as well as the livestock and poultry industry. Such informations are translated into inputs to policy decisions necessary for further development of the agribusiness industry locally and internationally. For such crucial role, it is imperative that a research be undertaken to comprehensively develop, review, and update models as well as conduct a careful study of the current industry practices and market situations. This project aims to enhance the knowledge of other DA agencies on the development of LCM and SCA models for a more responsive early warning system for the livestock and poultry sector. Different strategies such as benchmarking of information, development of a model framework, model building using the Delphi method or expert’s opinion, and visitation of layer farms were adopted in order to develop a forecasting model on the production of table eggs. A simulation test for the forecasting model was based on the productive performances of imported layer breeders called PS layers. The model generated monthly production data of day-old pullets (DOP) and eggs from the first production period up to culling age of the hens. However, the model is limited only in producing output under normal condition and does not capture other industry interventions. Performance parameters of the model will need updating from time to time to include changes in technology or other advancements.