Estimation of Effective Housing Needs Using Housing Accomplishments Projections
Author: Eleanore V. Ramos & Maria Praxedes R. Peña
In 2009, the Housing and Urban Development Council (HUDCC) commissioned the Philippine Statistical Research and Training Institute (then Statistical Research and Training Center) to develop a housing needs framework and generate estimates for its use through a study under the research project entitled "Development of Shelter Monitoring and Information System (DSMIS)". Through this, estimates as well as forecasts for housing needs had been generated. However, this did not take into account housing constructions or accomplishments. To estimate effective housing needs and provide for households that are living in unacceptable housing units, forecasts for housing accomplishments, particularly those supported or done by the government should also be generated. This paper investigated the methodologies that may be used to generate housing accomplishments, such as growth rates, trend analysis, ARIMA, and exponential smoothing. It also recommends what method may be used as the most viable approach.