Cascaded, National to Regional LPI-EWS: Case of Forecast Models for Chicken in Central Luzon
Author: Dustin Adriel V. Sulat, Eleanore V. Ramos, and Mary Ann C. Magtulis
Started in 2006, the Livestock and Poultry Information and Early Warning System (LPI-EWS) project produced outputs which were considered tools for sound policy decision conducive for a globally competitive agribusiness and market development planning for livestock and poultry sector. This was a collaborative research undertaking between the Philippine Statistical Research and Training Institute, Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), Department of Agriculture (DA) and its attached agencies. One of its main objectives is to replicate EWS concepts and approaches in the regions for a more responsive early warning system at local levels. Rolling out started in 2010 with three top producing regions of broiler and hog meat. These are Regions III, IVA and X. In 2017, that regional expansion was completed with ARMM as the last region to be covered. For their major output, each regional team generates situation reports for broiler and swine every year. The regional LPI-EWS also conducted statistical training programs to capacitate project technical staff from DA, PSA and NMIS field offices, and from provincial and city/municipality veterinary offices. This was done with the end goal of generating forecasts for broiler and swine production similar to what the national LPI-EWS releases. This would result to a deeper analysis on surplus-deficit scenarios useful for making sound policy decisions. This study aims to come up with appropriate and viable forecast models for chicken production, supply and demand of Central Luzon given readily available data sets. Results of this study can serve as early warning indicators for policy formulation in the region.