An Analysis on the Rice Stocks Levels of Farming and Non-Farming Households in Selected Provinces
Author: Melissa C. Pascua
In the Philippines, statistics on the supply of rice which is a vital input to the policymaking for agricultural economic programs on food security is generated by the Palay and Corn Stock Survey (PCSS). One form of PCSS is PCSS1 which covers household stocks of rice. For the conduct of the PCSS1, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) reverts back to using the full sample from the Rice and Corn Survey (RCS) for the generation of quarterly estimates and a sub-sample for the months in between quarters. One pressing issue that this study focuses on is how to generate more reliable, timely, accurate and consistent information given financial constraints. This study further looks into determining the feasibility of conducting a less frequent survey, and to develop a regression model that will generate rice stocks data for non-survey months. The X-11 ARIMA decomposition procedure with data on palay production, palay procurement, and retail price of rice is used to determine the feasibility of conducting a less frequent PCSS1.